TSP Weekly Wrap-Up – TSP Stock Funds Rise Last Week

Weekly TSP Wrap-up from TSP Talk

A good week for the TSP stock funds

Stocks rallied sharply last week, punctuated by a big rally on Friday, which was triggered by what was apparently a better than expected jobs report.

For the week, the C-fund gained 3.12%, the S-fund surged 4.85%, and the I-fund added 4.01%, as the rally in the U.S. dollar lost some steam. The F-fund (bonds) slipped 0.10%, and the G-fund added 0.04%.

March is off to a good start as the C-fund is now positive for 2010, while the S-fund continues to lead the way with a 7.3% gain for the new year, but the I-fund is still lagging and down 1.3% in 2010, as the strength in the dollar has been holding it back. The F-fund is up 1.8% this year, and the G-fund is up 0.58%.

We have been watching with interest, the comparison between the chart of the S&P 500 from early 2007, and the current chart. We talked about it last week, and to be honest, I did not think we would still be talking about it this week. It always seems that once you find a pattern, it is usually about to end, but this one is still going.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I hate to be too picky, but we did not get that little dip down to the 20-day EMA (green line) that we saw in 2007 between points “F” and “G”, as the S&P 500 seems to be going directly to “G”. Whether we do pullback or just continue past “G” as the 2007 chart did, remains to be seen, but if we are still talking about this next week, we can consider ourselves very fortunate to have a copy of what appears to be a treasure map.

From a technical analysis perspective, things are going swimmingly. If there is a concern for the coming week it is that there is a tendency to see a reverse of rallies that are triggered by a surprise in the jobs report. (The opposite is also true – sell offs after a negative surprise tend to get reversed). This could be that pullback to the 20-day EMA.

This week could also see some volatility as we head toward the March 16 deadline for publication of the Greek timetable on measures to correct their deficits. This crisis in Greece is not over.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley

www.tsptalk.com