Peter Sperry

I beleive the tipping point occurs when several current trends intersect.

1. Exponential growth in machine and artificial intelligence based productivity displaces all but very high skilled creative individuals from the work place, leaving them as consumers and citizens but not producers.


2. Exponential growth in machine and artificial intelligence based productivity reduces costs of consumer goods on global basis to the point extreme poverty is eliminated and first tier of Mazlow's higherarchy can, and is, met through needs based transfers by nongovernment organizations and minimal government social programs.



3. Current demographic trends level off and global population peakes at about 10 billion before falling back down to between 6-8 billion.


4. Exponential growth in communications and mobile connectivity allows overwhelming majority of global population to inteact as a single integrated community.

These are the megatrends impacting our world today. Their effect on government will be profound. Many (most) public services will migrate from nation state governments to NGOs or the broader private sector. Nation state based governments will be required to focus more on their core functions as arbitrators of disputes, facilitators of public decision making and final authorities regarding use of deadly force.

The greatest challange to government will be maintaining legitimacy based on more than raw power in the face of conflicting demands from consumers who no longer produce very much and mega producers desiring to maintain control over how much of their output is redistributed, to whom and on what basis.

Very difficult demand but off the charts interesting intellectual challanges. Depending on your point of view, the future could bring the dark ages of civil society or the golden age of public policy analysis. Or both.

I am looking forward to it and am only sorry I am probably not young enough to live through the entire transition period and see what comes out the other side.