February 22, 2012 at 4:07 pm #153974
Dorothy Ramienski AmatucciParticipant
One of the most important changes with regards to computing over the next 20 years won’t involve advancement; rather, it will have to do with stagnation.
Computing speeds will remain the same — and Moore’s Law will reach its limit.
Nextgov.com reports that Bob Colwell, a deputy director at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, recently made his predictions at an Emerging Technologies Symposium sponsored by the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association.
“When I make that statement, a lot of people say ‘yeah, yeah, a lot of people have always predicted Moore’s Law will always end and it never has yet so let’s move on to something else,'” Colwell said. “And that’s true. People have said that forever and they have not been right yet. Unfortunately, physics being what it is, someone will eventually have to be right.”
He added that this doesn’t mean computing speeds will cease to evolve. It just means that agencies like the Defense Department will have to pay more attention than ever when it comes to technological advances in the computing industry.
What do you think these predictions mean for the future of computing? Do you anticipate changes at your agency or organization?
February 22, 2012 at 9:39 pm #153980
As a nerd who works at a physics lab, I’m so thankful you made this post so I can geek out all I want. A nanomaterial whose properties were first heavily researched (but not discovered, as some might say!) by Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov (physicists at Manchester University) can theoretically extend Moore’s Law well into the future. They won the Nobel Prize in 2010 for their discoveries and their paper “The Rise of Graphene.” Anyway, graphene, unlike silicon/silicon dioxide, retains its extraordinary properties even at the nanoscale, which means if it could be used for transistors, Moore’s Law may be drastically extended. The problem is that it does not inherently have a bandgap, which is necessary in transistors. However, companies such as Samsung and universities are heavily investing in graphene research, and bandgaps in graphene have been demonstrated. In short, I don’t think Moore’s Law has reached a definite end, at least not yet.
Haven’t gotten to do that in so long…
February 23, 2012 at 5:33 pm #153978
I love the enthusiasm, Corey. Here’s a slightly less technical article I came across the other day on the topic: http://www.zdnet.com/news/one-atom-transistor-to-keep-moores-law-alive/6346134
February 25, 2012 at 4:32 am #153976
Don’t worry Steve, I worked almost 10 hours in the Laboratory today, I’ve had my fill for another couple of months.
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