Prediction is a messy game. Especially in a field that is often characterized by a state of punctuated equilibrium—long periods of stasis and then rapid disruptions. However, I will toss my hat into the ring.
The geopolitics of cybersecurity will take center stage. Certain visitors from the Land of the Pandas have been stealing a lot of our things. We’ve known they are stealing our things for a while. So what’s going to change? The increasingly aggressive nature of cyber-reconaissance and cyber-theft by geopolitical competitors is coming at a time of growing tension in the non-tech world. DOD’s concern over cyberwarfare is propelled by its larger anxiety over the anti-acccess/maritime denial challenge and a shift in the dynamics of the power game in the Pacific. Expect cyber to become more of a diplomatic and strategic issue, seen largely through the lens of Pacific geopolitics.
Mark Zuckerbeg will continue to build a user-populated total information awareness engine, and users will complain vigorously–but let him do it anyway. With every Facebook upgrade, the company moves closer towards the Platonic ideal of a complete database of one’s personal life. But no reasonable alternative exists–and users will complain without actually taking any steps to seriously deter the company from continuing to erode privacy. Expect more invasive platform changes.
- Tech of #OccupyWallStreet (ctolabs.com)
- Tech Review for November 2011 (ctolabs.com)
- DOD must redesign its network defenses, cyber chief says (bobgourley.com)