TSP Talk – 09/01/12

Stocks did little from Monday through Wednesday of last week, but Thursday we saw some nerves in front of Friday’s big Jackson-Hole speech from Ben Bernanke. The Dow dropped over 100-points Thursday in anticipation, and even though Bernanke didn’t give the market what it wanted, the news wasn’t bad and the Dow regained 90-points on Friday, leaving most of the the indices flat for the week.

Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of August 27 through August 31, plus the final numbers for August.

The S&P 500 has been moving mostly sideway since the early August gains. There is a double top up near 1425 and not surprisingly that has led to a little pullback. Volume has been very light during the late summer trading and that should pick going forward as vacations wrap up. We’re looking to see if the 20-day EMA can hold here or if the S&P wants to move down to test the 50-day EMA.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The market leader is the Dow Transportation Index and it has been in a triangle pattern that will need to break one way or the other, but there is still some room on the upside if the rising support wants to hold. With oil moving near $100 a barrel again, it could continue to put pressure on the Transports, and with it being the market leader, could dictate which way the S&P 500 and other major indices go.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The indicators are mixed and I don’t have much conviction either way for the short-term. All of the positive rhetoric about fixing the economy during both presidential conventions should give the market a little hope, but it is tough to trust emotional trading.

We saw a slight bump in GDP and another weak initial jobless claims number last week, neither anything to write home about. The Fed has another meeting in September and investors may now be focused on what that may bring. QE3 is what Wall Street wants and we could see some jockeying for position as we approach that important September 12th & 13th FOMC meeting.

Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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