TSP Talk – Good Signs for the Intermediate- Term

Breakout is a good sign,but short-term question marks

Stocks rallied strongly on Friday turning what looked like was going to be a negative week into another positive one. The action comes as we head into an important weekend for the Eurozone as they continue to put together a plan to try to tame the debt crisis in Greece.

For the TSP, the C-fund gained 1.14%, the S-fund added 0.44%, the I-fund slipped 0.44%, while the F-fund (bonds) was up 0.29%, and the G-fund was up 0.03%.

For the month, the C-fund is now up 9.59% in October and is now actually back in positive territory for the year. The S-fund has gained 10.24%, the I-fund has added 8.35%, while the F-fund (bonds) is down 0.51%, and the G-fund is up 0.10% for the month.

The S&P 500 has now pushed above the 200-day EMA, certainly a positive sign, but it’s only a start. The 200-day simple moving average is still overhead near 1275 and that can also be expected to act as some resistance. We also have possible resistance at 1270, and the rising wedge formation does pose a more short-term threat.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq had been leading the way during this rally, but surprisingly it did not make another new intermediate-term high on Friday like the S&P 500 did, but it does appear that a bull flag has formed and may have already broken out on the upside.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq is a leading market index and we really want to see it take the lead on the upside if this rally is going to continue.

Taking a look at the weekly chart you can see that we saw a breakout above the 200-week moving average. This is also a very positive sign, but I am a little concerned that we could be following the 2007-2008 pattern, which did not turn out real well.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Back in early 2008 we saw the S&P 500 move above its 200-week moving average and it produced several weeks of strong gains. This I can live with and it is how market timers can make money. As a reminder,the S&P 500 first hit 1200 back in 1998. That’s 13 years of basically no gains for this major index, but plenty of action to take advantage of the market swings. So when we the market looks like it wants to rally, I do like to take advantage of it – even if it turns out that a year from now stocks are down again.

Bottom line, I think we could see some pulling back from the index early this week, but these could be good buying opportunities if you’ve missed the recent rally. We are heading into November and December, two of the strongest months of the year historically. The S&P 500 is flat right now for 2011 and it has not closed in negative territory during the 3rd year of a president’s term since 1939. If that steak is going to continue, look for some gains in November and December.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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