TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

It was another week of stocks starting in the lower left hand corner on the chart, and ending in the top right. Momentum is on the bulls’ side and the positive economic data has justified the move, but have stocks gone too far, too fast?

Here are the up to date TSP fund returns through March 15:

Last week was an options expiration week and historically there is a positive bias during that week. But the week after options expiration Friday tends to be less bullish. Not every month, but there is an historical tendency.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I have written about options weeks before but only in a broad way. If you know who Trader Fred is, you know he jumps all over claims like this and dives into the data. If you are interested, Fred has done some extensive research on the pre / post options week phenomenon and the reports can be found on this page: Free Trader Fred Technical Reports. Bottom line, the positive bias during pre-options expiration week, and the weak bias during post-option expiration week, does have validity.

I try not to do too much analysis in these weekly wrap-ups but instead give an overview of what has been happening over the last week. But this chart compels me to say the obvious… Stocks have been moving higher, but have probably gone too far too fast and are due for a pullback.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The buy and hold investors are still in command here and are probably feeling pretty good right now. If only it was always that easy, but we know better.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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