TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

It was another week on Wall Street where the stock indices started in the lower left corner of the chart, and finished in the upper right. One of the most frustrating, unloved rallies continues and probably won’t end until more investors feel the love.

Here are the up to date TSP fund returns through May 17.

The S&P 500 blasted through the longer-term resistance line last week, and is trading within another steep rising trading channel (red).

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Next week is a post-options expiration week which historically has a weaker than average bias, but the support lines are rising, including the old resistance line (black) which could now easily act as support, so the bears will have their work cut out for them since the dip buyers should be lying in wait near that support.

One word or caution – although I have had many this year but have been proven wrong time after time – The S&P 500 (1667) is now 177-points, or 12%, above its 200-day exponential moving average (1490). This is highly stretched and while history doesn’t necessarily suggest a crash is coming, we could expect some underperformance compared to an average return going forward until this comes down to more reasonable spread.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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