TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

It was a holiday shortened, light volume trading week, but a good one for stocks, and a bad one for bonds. The jobs report had some mixed messages, but the 195,000 jobs created in June, and the upward revisions to prior months, gave investors reason to buy on Friday – at least those who were not taking the day off.

Here are the up to date TSP fund returns through July 5. Solid gains for the stock funds with the S-fund leading the way, but bond yields are still rising which meant lower share prices for the F-fund.

The problem with holiday weeks is that the trading can get skewed, stocks can be easily pushed around, and it could get investors leaning the wrong way. After the holiday, the bigger money will be back taking advantage of any overreaction that may have occurred. But was the rally an overreaction? That’s what we’ll find out.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The trading days surrounding Independence Day have an historical positive bias and the market did not disappoint. The question of course is, was the positive reaction to the jobs report, in the midst of some holiday down time, a sustainable move? You can see above that the longer-term rising support line (now resistance) and the short-term descending resistance lines are meeting at Friday’s high so any upside action on Monday above that resistance will be a pretty solid sign of strength for stocks.

Bonds had the opposite reaction to the strong jobs report as yields spiked, bond prices fell, and that meant a bad day for the F-fund.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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