Deltek Sr. Analyst Chris Cotner reports.
This article is a continuation of the good news budget analysis series covering specific justice and public safety (JPS) state opportunities. As illustrated in a previous article, here, GovWin developed a set of statistical projection models to examine future state budget trends in the JPS vertical. In brief, state JPS budgets are projected to increase looking forward. The following analysis explains both the methodology and projections in some detail.
Using GovWin’s particularly robust budget data, combined with the Census’ accurate past data and future population projections, we were able to create excellent models (highly correlative and highly predictive). For more detail on the GovWin’s methodology, subscribers click here.
Taking a look at figure 1, above, the projection looks is slightly better than the previous overall state budget projection data (here).There is an uptick in FY 2011, followed by a -0.34 percent decrease in FY 2012. Considering that all combined budgets are experiencing a 2.11 percent drop in FY 2012, this is good news! Looking at the 95 percent confidence intervals, while possible for there to be overall JPS losses from FY 2013 to 2014, it is highly unlikely. In fact, the data indicate that FY 2013 should either bear out with flat or slight upward growth. Even better, by FY 2014, state JPS budgets should be back to growing at a 0.84 to 1.0 percent annual rate.
As mentioned earlier, doing state-specific projections becomes more difficult with a universal model. Simply, there are too many possible associated variables to accurately predict for each state. However, with our modeling, GovWin was able to provide a picture of projected budgets for some states. Before delving into that data, here are the actual JPS budgets for states in FY 2010 – 2013.
For the complete blog, go here.
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