This blog is part one of a two-part series.
By Chris Cotner, Kate Tussey, Amanda White, Stephen Moss, and Aila Altman.
In all states combined, HC and SS will account for 34.8% of all funds expenditures in 2012. While this is a net loss of -5.3 percent from FY 2011, it is still the largest budget expenditure for the states (with education closing in at second with 31% of the budget). In the recent environment of decreased state revenues in the sluggish economy, budget cuts have been the norm. As I wrote in my previous article (here), FY 2012 is the first time in decades that state budgets have decreased on the whole. With the prospect of rising costs and budgets in HC and SS, there is good reason for states to be concerned. Despite the net loss in FY 2012, state budgets are expected to flatten and begin upward growth in FY 2013. However, drilling down, there is more good news around which to rally.
As part of our continued analysis of state and local budgets and spending, Deltek developed a set of statistical projection models to examine future trends in the states’ HC and SS budgets. What we found was more good news. After the net loss in FY 2012 for all states, HC and SS budgets are projected to increase (see figure 1, below) in FY 2013.
The following analysis explains both the methodology and projections in greater detail. While similar to the more general analysis published, (here), this analysis also includes HC and SS budgets, budget projections, and IT budgets for individual states. Since much of the overarching information would be very similar to previously published analysis (here, here, and here), this article dispenses with much of the macro analysis and focuses on the combined data.
For the complete blog, go here.