When leaders think about risk, the instinct is often to prepare for singular events. A storm knocks out power. A ransomware attack takes down a server. A staffing shortage delays a program. But in today’s interconnected environment, risks rarely occur in isolation. Instead, they cascade, spreading across sectors, functions, and even international boundaries. This is the overlooked threat that government leaders must now confront: compound crises fueled by system interdependencies.
Why This Matters Now
Government agencies operate in ecosystems where technology, supply chains, workforce dynamics and citizen expectations are tightly bound. A disruption in one node can ripple through the entire system. The 2021 Colonial Pipeline cyberattack, for example, wasn’t just a breach of one company’s network. It triggered fuel shortages, strained healthcare logistics, disrupted food deliveries and undermined public confidence in infrastructure resilience. That cascade happened in less than a week and demonstrated how quickly a local event can escalate into a national crisis.
In 2024, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction warned that global crises are increasingly interconnected, and traditional risk management frameworks, designed to address siloed events, are no longer sufficient. Yet, many government continuity plans still assume single-point failures rather than chain reactions. The cost of this blind spot is high. According to Deloitte’s 2023 resilience report, organizations that fail to anticipate cascading risks suffer recovery times that are 40 percent longer than those that model interdependencies.
The Leadership Gap
The problem isn’t a lack of awareness that risks exist. It’s that too few leaders have shifted their mindset from tactical crisis response to systemic resilience. Too many continuity playbooks still say, “If X happens, do Y.” But in 2025, the reality looks more like, “If X happens, expect Y, Z, and Q to follow within 72 hours.” Leaders who don’t anticipate these compounding effects set their agencies up for failure when disruption strikes.
Even more concerning is the communication gap. A cyber specialist may understand the implications of a compromised vendor, but without translation to mission outcomes, decision-makers underestimate the severity. This disconnect leads to delayed responses and, in some cases, reputational harm that outlasts the technical issue.
3 Actions Leaders Must Take Now
1. Map risk interdependencies
Agencies must go beyond compliance-driven risk registers and map interdependencies across IT, people, vendors and policies. Ask: If this system fails, what programs halt? If this vendor is compromised, who else is exposed? If this workforce gap widens, what downstream services collapse? This exercise should not live in a binder. It should be a living map updated quarterly and tied directly to mission outcomes. Countries like Singapore have adopted whole-of-government risk mapping, integrating digital, physical, and social interdependencies into a single dashboard for decision-makers. U.S. agencies must follow suit or risk being blindsided by the next multi-node failure.
2. Conduct compound-risk drills
Most agencies conduct tabletop exercises, but they often simulate one event at a time. Leaders should design compound-risk drills that layer disruptions. Imagine a cyberattack during a natural disaster. Or a disinformation campaign launched in the middle of a major procurement system outage. These scenarios may feel overwhelming, but that’s the point. Practicing under stress reveals weak points in communication channels, exposes decision bottlenecks and trains leaders to respond in concert rather than in silos. NATO’s 2024 Cyber Coalition exercise tested precisely this kind of multi-vector disruption, offering a global example of how joint preparation accelerates coordinated response.
3. Embed risk translators
Leaders need professionals who can bridge the gap between technical teams and mission executives. These “risk translators” contextualize cyber, operational or workforce issues into clear impacts on public trust, service delivery and compliance. For instance, instead of saying, “We’ve detected lateral movement in the vendor pipeline,” a translator reframes the statement as, “If this persists, 40% of our citizen services could be offline within 24 hours.” This role is not about exaggeration, it’s about relevance. Agencies that institutionalize risk translation ensure that executive decisions align with the urgency of real threats.
The Call to Action
Cascading risks are no longer theoretical. They are the reality of a hyperconnected government landscape. Leaders who continue to prepare for linear disruptions will leave their agencies exposed, citizens underserved, and reputations tarnished.
The path forward requires courage and discipline. Courage to admit that current playbooks are outdated. Discipline to implement risk mapping, compound-risk drills, and risk translation as core leadership practices, not optional enhancements.
The good news is that agencies that adopt these practices don’t just survive crises. They earn trust by demonstrating foresight, coordination, and resilience in the moments that matter most. And trust, once earned, becomes the most powerful currency in government leadership.
Dr. Rhonda Farrell is a transformation advisor with decades of experience driving impactful change and strategic growth for DoD, IC, Joint, and commercial agencies and organizations. She has a robust background in digital transformation, organizational development, and process improvement, offering a unique perspective that combines technical expertise with a deep understanding of business dynamics. As a strategy and innovation leader, she aligns with CIO, CTO, CDO, CISO, and Chief of Staff initiatives to identify strategic gaps, realign missions, and re-engineer organizations. Based in Baltimore and a proud US Marine Corps veteran, she brings a disciplined, resilient, and mission-focused approach to her work, enabling organizations to pivot and innovate successfully.
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