TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

We saw volatility pick up last week, but as volatile as it was, the indices ended the week quite close to where they began, showing just minor gains or losses for the week. The bond fund (F) led the way with a 0.43% gain.

Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of February 25 through March 1…

And here are the final returns for the month of February…

The bulls did a good job of holding off the bears and keeping the
S&P 500 from completely breaking down. As we have been saying, bull market momentum does not stop and reverse very easily. For a few days the bears dug their claws in, but the dip buyers jumped right back in taking the index up toward the prior week’s highs, although that 1525 area continues to be a tough nut to crack.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I am seeing signs, particularly in the investor sentiment department, that this market could have some room to move up, but when I look at the charts, both short and longer term, and see the obvious overhead resistance, I am not ready to get jump back in the water just yet.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The old saying that the trend is your friend holds true, but depending on your timeframe, the trends may not all be doing the same thing. We saw the trend of the very narrow rising trading channel break on the S&P 500 a couple of weeks ago, which was a warning sign, and the trend of the longer term chart tells us that overhead resistance has been hit and could mean an eventual test of the lower end of rising trading channel is developing.

The surprise move here would be continued upside action, but the market loves to throw surprises at us so traders must stay flexible. The buy and hold investors have had a good run this year, even going back to November, but with volatility picking up, the market timers may be the ones with the advantage going forward.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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