TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks started the week with some modest losses, and even with the volatility after the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday, the S&P 500 was still down for the week. But after digesting the Fed’s statement overnight, and some better than expected economic reports, stocks rallied sharply on Thursday. Friday’s jobs report took stocks lower initially, but the buyers have never been far behind this year, and we ended the week with more gains in the stock funds.

Here are the up-to-date weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through August 2.

The S&P 500 made new highs last week which created a new rising support line (red). The trading channel (blue) has some room on the upside on this daily chart if the sharp angle of incline can sustain itself, which seems unlikely for any extended period of time.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Taking a look at the long-term monthly chart of the small cap Russell 2000 index, you can see it is extremely stretched to the upside and touching the long-term resistance line. Is the market, and the economy in that great of shape that we should be seeing continued historic increases in stocks? I doubt it, but this market continues to surprise leaving the skeptics on the sidelines.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds (F-fund) continue to struggle and the long-term bond made a new lower low on Thursday. Friday’s gain could be the start of a double bottom bounce but we’ll have to watch that support line (red). If the TLT goes below that support line, I would avoid the F-fund. If it stays above it, the chance of a rally improves.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Administrative Note: The Ebbchart System posted its final report last week. I want to thank Ebb for his dedication going back to 2006, and all of his subscribers for their support.

So that we are not leaving you high and dry, RevShark has offered to give free access to his TSP Timing premium service for everyone, through next week. You do have to create a login to gain access.

If you don’t have an account yet, here’s how to get started…

http://www.tsptalk.com/create-premium-account.php or view video instructions here: http://www.tsptalk.com/create-premium-account-video.php

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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