TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

After a slow start to 2014, stocks rebounded last week and showed some resilience by not breaking down after the weak jobs report on Friday. The gains took the S-fund out of the red for the year, but the C and I-funds still show minor losses. The F-fund, last year’s dog, has been the early leader so far this year.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through Friday, January 10…

The chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund) starts in the lower left hand corner, and ends in the top right. That’s about the best definition of a bull market you will find. There are some concerns with this chart getting ahead of itself, plus the last leg is a possible rising edge, which tend to break down eventually.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This next chart from www.mcoscillator.com looks a little scary but these types of comparisons rarely play out exactly as they might suggest. It is being posted for entertainment purposes, but should the unthinkable happen, I wanted to give you a little warning. The black line is the 1928-1929 chart of the Dow leading up to the 1929 market crash, and the aftermath. The red line is the current Dow chart and I have been updating it to keep up with the comparison. January 14tth is where that peak would be if the comparison continues.

Chart source: www.mcoscillator.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The bond (F-fund) charts have been very bearish but have shown some life so far this year, and particularly after the weak jobs report which sent bond prices up and yields down.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bond sentiment has been extremely bearish so a little rebound seems reasonable. The next level of resistance is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another
TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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