Our economy has been going through cycles – up & down – since the depression in the 1920’s. Cycles start and cycles end – we are trained to expect things to ‘return to normal’ at some point. ‘NORMAL’ was back to growth and abundance – with some adjustment it was business as usual.
We will not return to rapid growth and abundance this time within the span of a cycle or two. We ARE back to normal, but it is a new normal. What you see in the economy today is the new normal.
It is more modest with less return and growth than we have enjoyed in the past. So, it is time to quit holding our breath waiting and get back to business at this level and pace.
We may have been distracted by the economic implosion and missed the structural change that has taken place. Seth Godin calls it “the forever recession” which is the end of the industrial age and local markets. Now it’s best mix of price-quality-value for goods & services and the extensive access to information and communications for finding them.
The reality of all of this shows up in a recent conversation with a guy launching a start-up – his planning uses what is today for scale and scope and being flexible for opportunities as developed.
Good point of view for all of us, don’t you think?
Have you read the Great Reset? I highly recommend it. Permanent recession? I have more hope than that. Good thoughts though. Also, recommend “the Next 100 Million.”
We like to think there’s a “normal”. These cycles are all I can remember—-and probably all that any of us remember. “Mother Nature” likes to even things out. She’s constantly trying to even things out—and that does not necessarily we’ll become millionaires in the process(that’s relative too). At the end of the day—I agree that “normal” is this constant up and down cycle in the economy. The key is to learn from history,be able to anticipate the next move, take enough (but not too many) risks,learn not-to-hate the government, and understand that we’ll go through these weird times many more times in our lifetime.
Too bad our dollar is becoming worthless due to the overworking printing presses at the Fed. Also, the biggest banks have been mostly dishonest about mortgage dealings. Not sure if we ever will get back this time around. It is pretty scary.
Deborah:
Thanks for your thoughts.
The truth is that IT IS HERE – NOW, and with recognition of the less visible structural change that is evolving, we can change and adapt to the new reality. It’s scary because it is change and with that the unknown of what the outcome will be. BUT, we know that our country has survived this before. And that individuals helped each other so communities and cities also survived.
What has changed is that a ‘Field of Dreams’ approach of expanding before demand will no longer work.
Looking for opportunity will chase away the scary monsters.
Eileen:
Some excellent points and a great leading philosophy. Thanks!
Assess current conditions.
Adjust for this environment.
Plan for what is NOW.
Look for opportunity.
Take acceptable risks.
Be agile and flexible.
Satisfy needs, not just execute activities.
And since change is normal (and we will face it again & again) become adept at it as well.
Victoria:
Thanks for your optimism and suggested readings.
Naming the changes facing us is not to be consumed by them. Opportunities are occurring and individuals are responding to fill the needs.
Will individuals have a greater role in stabilizing the economy – domestic and world-wide? I believe so, which is a shift more so than a reset, and speaks to the structural change that Godin referenced.