Paul J. H. Schoemaker has a great article 9 Ways to See Change Coming. To master the art of anticipation, he recommends:
- Look for game changing information at the periphery of their business
- Search beyond the boundaries of current, prevailing views
- Recognize potential changes before the competition does
- Connect the dots of incipient trends by triangulating weak signals
- Entertain multiple hypotheses about causes of change
- Encourage mavericks in their company to say what they really think
- Organize “paranoia sessions” to tap wisdom inside their company
- Build wide networks inside and outside the organization
- Remain vigilant and curious about signals from many spheres
He also has a new article How to Prepare for the Unexpected
- Define the issue.
- Make a list of what you know.
- Identify what you don’t know.
- Construct multiple scenarios.
- Assess the plausibility of each scenario.
- Eliminate combinations that are implausible.
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