Identify and Prepare for Changes

Paul J. H. Schoemaker has a great article 9 Ways to See Change Coming. To master the art of anticipation, he recommends:

1. Look for game changing information at the periphery of their business
2. Search beyond the boundaries of current, prevailing views
3. Recognize potential changes before the competition does
4. Connect the dots of incipient trends by triangulating weak signals
5. Entertain multiple hypotheses about causes of change
6. Encourage mavericks in their company to say what they really think
7. Organize “paranoia sessions” to tap wisdom inside their company
8. Build wide networks inside and outside the organization
9. Remain vigilant and curious about signals from many spheres

He also has a new article How to Prepare for the Unexpected

1. Define the issue.
2. Make a list of what you know.
3. Identify what you don’t know.
4. Construct multiple scenarios.
5. Assess the plausibility of each scenario.
6. Eliminate combinations that are implausible.

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