We saw the typical holiday positive action this week coming off last week’s lows. There was still some fight in the bears on Monday but with the season on their side the bulls took control the rest of the week. All the TSP stock funds were up more than 2% for the week while the F-fund fell into negative territory.
Historically stocks tend to be positive in the weeks surrounding Christmas. Although this chart shows the week after Christmas having more strength in gains than the week before, the past few years we have seen stocks move in the opposite direction during the week after Christmas as discussed in this weeks Market Comments . It is smart to keep in mind going into a week when stocks tend to be up that this doesn’t mean they will certainly go up.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 24th:
You can see a large bull flag formation from the last three months in the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund). These tend to break to the upside which would be a good start to the new year. However looking at other charts, particularly in Europe, there seems to be technical issues that does not support a bullish environment. The C-fund was up 2.8% for the week. Another strong week for the S&P 500 may put it in positive territory for the year.
Although the Dow Completion Index (S-fund) had been consistently down for the first half of this month it seems to be attempting a comeback passing through the holiday season. We could see a bear flag form soon which would not look good technically going into the new year. The S-fund led the TSP funds this week up 2.9%.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped up Wednesday above declining resistance and partially filled an open gap from early December leaving a new one below. It’s 50-day EMA may have held up the fund from completely filling the gap as well as potentially rising further. The I-fund was up 2.06% this week.
As stocks prices rose during the pre-holiday bias, naturally AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is on the other side of the action. Bonds have a steep declining resistance line and investors are seeing this and are jumping into stocks during the holidays so the F-fund was the only TSP fund in negative territory down 0.23%.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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