TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

During what is supposed to be the weakest month of the year historically, stocks had another great week adding to some impressive gains for the month of September. Some were calling it a relief rally after the threat of a strike on Syria subsided, and if that is the case, it may be an overreaction. What is coming down the road looks a little unnerving but investors don’t seem all too concerned, although trading volume has been light indicating a possible stay back and wait approach.

Here are the up-to-date weekly, current month, and annual TSP fund returns through September 13.

The Fed’s FOMC meeting is this coming week, Tuesday and Wednesday, and there is a fair possibility that they could be announcing a slowdown in the bond buying that has helped buoy the stock market for some time. It’s no secret so perhaps the market has already priced it in, but $85 billion a month has helped the market and anything less should have an impact.

That’s not the only concern. Besides the situation in Syrian, which is not over by any means, the debt ceiling negotiations are on again, and the deadline to sign a continuing resolution to keep the government from shutting down is fast approaching. These are not matters that will be taken lightly by Wall Street so I’m a little surprised by the resilience of the market.

S&P 500 (SPY) was up 4 of 5 days last week, and 8 of the last 9 days. It’s on the overbought side and that open gap near 167.50 is likely to get filled, as gaps usually do.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Volume has been very light, and perhaps that is due to the uncertainty coming up in the next couple of weeks (with Syria, the Fed, the debt ceiling, and the continuing resolution.)

Bonds and the F-fund had a nice week as the 7-10 year bond fund bounced off of the bottom if its descending trading channel, but now that it is testing the top of that channel, and things may get a little tougher this week.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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