TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Stocks were mixed last week in front of the uncertainty of this Monday’s deadline for a continuing resolution to fund the government. Considering what is at stake, the market held up rather well, but as our TSP Talk Plus members saw this week, a shutdown hasn’t always been a bad thing for the market.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through Friday, September 27. Only the C-fund lost ground last week as the small caps held up well and the weakness in the dollar helped the I-fund stay positive. The F-fund (bonds) had the best week of all of the funds.

The weakness last week helped push the S&P 500 (SPY) down to fill the first open gap, but there is still one open near the 50-day EMA.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds (F-fund) led the way last week as yields fell and investors looked for a little safety leading up to the budget deadline on Monday. Two descending trading channels broke (black and red) so this medium term bond fund (7 to 10 year) is now in a new uptrend.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

It’s a big weekend in Washington as Monday night’s deadline quickly approaches. History has shown that when the government shuts down, the market doesn’t always go down. Yes, the bias is negative, but not as much as you might think. We know a resolution will eventually come and the question is, will the market rally after a deal is made, or is the market ready for a more significant pullback. So far in 2013, every dip has been an opportunity. Will it be again?

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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