TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

After two weeks of consistent selling pressure, stocks finally produced a meaning rebound after Wednesday’s positive reversal day and strong follow-through on Thursday and Friday. Even a weaker than expected jobs report could not stop the rally, and the Dow gained 450 points from the low made on Wednesday. Bond and the F-fund also managed a gain, but they pulled back in the latter half of the week.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns through Friday, February 7…

The S&P 500 bounced off an important support line and may have produced yet another bottom without the market experiencing a 10% correction – which has been long overdue. Is this going to be a repeat of 2013?

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Not so fast. Before we get comfortable and complacent again, let me remind you of the chart the we found on mcoscillator.com back in December that compares the 1929 chart with the current action. The pattern is called “3 peaks and a domed house” and if anything, lat week’s rally may have created more concerns than optimism. The comparison will never be exact, but if the Dow (currently 15,794) hits 16,000 – 16,200, don’t look away.

Source www.mcoscillator.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds (F-Fund) have pulled back and the bond ETFs show a break from the recent ascending support line, and they are now testing the important 200-day EMAs, looking for support.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This coming week should be interesting. Either bonds will fall back below the 200-day EMA and test the 50-day EMA while stocks continue to rally, or bonds will bounce off of the 200-day EMA and the recent rally in stocks would likely come to an end. Keep an eye on the Dow 16,000 level.

If you need some help figuring out what to do, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Good luck, thanks for reading, and
have a great holiday weekend! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html.

Tom Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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